劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 6

Day 6 Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions

Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五問：

（1）“we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea”是結(jié)論，其余部分是事實，值得反駁嗎？

（2）來自當(dāng)?shù)孬C人的報告一定是準(zhǔn)確的嗎？獵人這個職業(yè)是否可能導(dǎo)致他們給出有傾向性的報告？獵人這個職業(yè)的活動范圍是否會使他們給出有偏差的報告？獵人的調(diào)查結(jié)果足夠客觀嗎？

（3）兩件事情同時發(fā)生就一定有因果關(guān)系嗎？鹿的數(shù)量減少一定是因為全球變暖嗎？其他原因，比如天敵數(shù)量增加，也會導(dǎo)致鹿的數(shù)量減少。請回顧一下，我們對因果關(guān)系的判定，需要遵循哪些條件？

（4）文章中是否給出了遷徙模式與鹿的數(shù)量之間的直接關(guān)系？無法遷徙就會導(dǎo)致鹿因缺少食物而數(shù)量減少嗎？全球變暖也有可能使島上的植被增加，滿足鹿的食物需求。

（5）全球變暖已經(jīng)達到使冰全部融化以至于鹿無法遷徙的程度嗎？有證據(jù)證明當(dāng)?shù)貧鉁厣邌幔?/p>