劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 43

Day 43 Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chairperson of the West Egg Town Council.

“Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of recycled material— which includes paper, plastic, and metal— should further increase, since charges for pickup of other household garbage will double. Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our town's strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五問：

（1）“Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years”和“Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future”是事實，“the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted”是結(jié)論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）兩年前的預(yù)測是基于哪些要素進行的？當時是否可能已經(jīng)考慮到了回收率的提升等諸多要素？

（3）我們應(yīng)該思考，回收率在過去兩年提升了，就一定會在隨后幾年中延續(xù)下去嗎？過去和現(xiàn)在未必一致，現(xiàn)在與將來也不一定一致：時間軸論證是我們最應(yīng)該關(guān)注的錯誤論證方法之一。

（4）可回收利用的垃圾（如紙、塑料、金屬）占垃圾總量的比例是多少呢？不可回收利用的垃圾（如廚余垃圾）有沒有可能更多呢？另外，提高收取垃圾的費用，就意味著回收率一定會提高嗎？你能想出其他情形嗎？例如：通過焚燒、堆肥等方式處理垃圾，這樣回收率也不一定會提高。

（5）調(diào)查過程中 90%的居民說會更多地進行垃圾回收，就意味著他們一定會這樣做嗎？剩下 10%的居民呢？另外，居民處理垃圾的習慣是影響垃圾填埋場使用率的唯一因素嗎？你能想出其他因素嗎？例如：當?shù)鼐用竦娜丝跀?shù)量增長導致垃圾增多也是一個影響因素。