劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 60

Day 60 Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

“Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

五問：

（1）“Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth”是事實(shí)，“we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil”是結(jié)論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）上一個(gè)供暖季節(jié)是這樣，就意味著下一個(gè)供暖季節(jié)也將會(huì)如此嗎？請(qǐng)同學(xué)們回顧一下：為什么我們認(rèn)為時(shí)間軸論證是一種危險(xiǎn)的論證方式？有哪些因素可能會(huì)影響該論證的有效性？天氣預(yù)報(bào)員就一定是準(zhǔn)確的嗎？

（3）90 天的低溫天氣就意味著燃油使用量一定會(huì)增加嗎？供暖還可以通過天然氣、電力、太陽能等方式實(shí)現(xiàn)，如果很多人選擇這些非傳統(tǒng)的取暖方式，油料的使用反而有可能降低。

（4）新的房屋正在建造中，就意味著油料的使用一定會(huì)增加嗎？油料是否可能被取代？你能否試著說說：如果有其他可能的能源出現(xiàn)，將如何影響油料的使用量？

（5）Consolidated Industries 是否值得投資，除了取決于該公司的油料銷售量是否會(huì)增長(zhǎng)之外，是否有其他因素？你能試著羅列一兩個(gè)嗎？例如：這家公司的其他業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展情況是否良好，它的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手實(shí)力如何等。