劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 83

Day 83 In 1975 a wildlife census found that there were seven species of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, with abundant numbers of each species

The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.

“In 1975 a wildlife census found that there were seven species of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, with abundant numbers of each species. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. There has been a substantial decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide, and global pollution of water and air is clearly implicated. The decline of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, however, almost certainly has a different cause: in 1975, trout— which are known to eat amphibian eggs— were introduced into the park.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五問：

（1）“The decline of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, however, almost certainly has a different cause”是結(jié)論，其余部分是事實，值得反駁嗎？

（2）1975年與2002年的兩次調(diào)查是否可以用于對比呢？你能否嘗試羅列一下：哪些因素的不一致可能會導(dǎo)致兩次調(diào)查不能被比較？（比如：第一次調(diào)查時有七種 amphibians被發(fā)現(xiàn)，而第二次調(diào)查時只有四種 amphibians被“觀測”到——我們能簡單地說沒有被觀測到的 amphibian就一定不存在嗎？）

（3）我們能否簡單地判斷“世界”范圍內(nèi) amphibians數(shù)量的減少與Xanadu National Park內(nèi)的 amphibians數(shù)量減少是毫無關(guān)系的嗎？ global pollution of water and air是否應(yīng)該屬于全球性的影響？是否也會對 Xanadu National Park有所影響？原文中是否討論了這個因素？

（4）原文中所提及的 trout的特點是 eat amphibian eggs，但是是否給出了足夠的信息證明這些被吃掉的 eggs就是減少的 amphibians的 eggs？是否有可能 trout的數(shù)量并沒有多到足以使 amphibians大量減少？

（5）即便引入 trout是 amphibians減少的一個原因，那文中有沒有說明這個原因的唯一性？重要性？是否可能有其他的原因？比如：食物鏈遭到破壞、傳染性疾病爆發(fā)等。