Lex專(zhuān)欄：CDR的影響難以預(yù)測(cè)

Chinese tech firms tend to be registered in the Caymans and listed in New York or Hong Kong. Such cosmopolitan status is unpopular with regulators keen to bolster domestic stock trading. Noisy new enthusiasm among tech groups for local listings is evidence of this. The result will be quick gains followed by muddy governance and trapped value.

中國(guó)科技公司一般都在開(kāi)曼群島注冊(cè)，在紐約或香港上市。這種世界性身份并不受希望看到國(guó)內(nèi)證券交易活躍的監(jiān)管部門(mén)歡迎。近期一批科技公司鬧哄哄地準(zhǔn)備回歸中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)上市就是一個(gè)例證。回歸以后，它們的股價(jià)也許會(huì)快速上漲，但是緊接著投資者可能遭遇治理結(jié)構(gòu)混亂和價(jià)值陷阱(value trap)。

Cheerleaders for bourses such as those in Shenzhen and Shanghai are promoting issuance of Chinese depositary receipts (CDRs). These offer the most obvious way for bullish locals to invest in tech champions such as Alibaba and Tencent. A crackdown on high-yielding wealth management products has forced them to rebalance portfolios. But there is a lack of alternatives.

深圳和上海兩地證交所的支持者們正在倡導(dǎo)發(fā)行“中國(guó)存托憑證”(CDR)。這將為內(nèi)地的“看漲派”提供投資阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和騰訊(Tencent)等科技巨頭的最簡(jiǎn)單方式。當(dāng)局打擊高收益理財(cái)產(chǎn)品迫使他們不得不調(diào)整投資組合，但又缺乏其他投資渠道。

The CDRs would thus likely trade at a premium to underlying securities. The analogy, according to Morgan Stanley, are the American depositary receipts of Indian bank HDFC. These trade at a 15 per cent premium to shares with limited availability to keen foreign buyers. Likewise, A shares traded on Chinese exchanges have typically been worth 30 per cent more than H shares in the same groups listed in Hong Kong.

因此CDR的交易價(jià)可能會(huì)高于相應(yīng)的基礎(chǔ)證券。據(jù)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示，印度銀行HDFC的“美國(guó)存托憑證”(ADR)可以作為類(lèi)比。由于外國(guó)買(mǎi)家興趣濃厚而供應(yīng)有限，該憑證比HDFC普通股溢價(jià)15%。同樣，同一家企業(yè)在中國(guó)內(nèi)地交易所掛牌的A股通常比在香港掛牌的H股貴出30%左右。

The first CDRs are expected to emerge this year. The impact will be unpredictable. Companies may issue new shares to cover CDRs sold to Chinese investors, diluting foreign holders. If treasury shares and overseas buybacks feature instead, related foreign securities may be unaffected or rise. Either way, foreign investors should assess how well or badly their limited governance rights compare with those conferred by the CDRs. Capital controls make it unlikely these will be easily interchangeable with US or HK-listed counterparts.

首批CDR預(yù)計(jì)在今年問(wèn)世，其影響將不可預(yù)測(cè)。企業(yè)可能會(huì)發(fā)行新股覆蓋賣(mài)給內(nèi)地投資者的CDR，從而稀釋境外股東的股權(quán)。相反，如果企業(yè)選擇用庫(kù)存股票和境外回購(gòu)股票來(lái)發(fā)行CDR，其境外股票的股價(jià)可能不受影響或上漲。無(wú)論企業(yè)采用哪種方式，境外投資者都應(yīng)該評(píng)估一下，自己擁有的有限治理權(quán)與CDR持有者的治理權(quán)相比有哪些優(yōu)勢(shì)和劣勢(shì)。由于資本管制，CDR不太可能與在美國(guó)或香港上市的股票輕松互換。

Any onshore valuation premium is likely to push up offshore prices, all the same. The biggest winners could be the banks that pitch a new “convergence trade”. Their clients should remember that a lot of money was lost on similar trades in A and H shares that remained separated by price as well as locale.

不管怎樣，一旦在岸估值存在溢價(jià)，就可能帶動(dòng)離岸股價(jià)上漲。最大的贏家可能是那些推銷(xiāo)新的“收斂交易”(convergence trade)的銀行。他們的客戶應(yīng)該記住，已經(jīng)有很多人因?yàn)檠鹤股和H股價(jià)格會(huì)趨同而虧了血本，到目前為止，A股和H股仍然分處兩地也仍然存在價(jià)差。