劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 11

Day 11 The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure

The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

五問：

（1）“The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County”是結(jié)論，其余部分是事實(shí)，值得反駁嗎？

（2）本題是一個(gè)很有意思的雙線對比題，即有兩個(gè)類比對象。類比的關(guān)鍵是什么？這三個(gè)地區(qū)的其他特點(diǎn)是一模一樣的嗎？例如：房子數(shù)量、消費(fèi)水平、人口基數(shù)等。如果不是，能否簡單地拿來比較？

（3）The council of Maple County對新房供應(yīng)量的限制力度會(huì)影響結(jié)果嗎？將新房供應(yīng)量限制到原本的 90%和10%，對房價(jià)的影響一樣嗎？原文是否給出了另外兩個(gè)地區(qū)對新房供應(yīng)量的限制力度？

（4）在作對比時(shí)，另外兩個(gè)地區(qū) Chestnut County和Pine County的時(shí)間點(diǎn)都不一致，這樣對比是正確的嗎？是否犯了時(shí)間軸論證錯(cuò)誤？

（5）高房價(jià)增長一點(diǎn)兒與低房價(jià)翻一倍，哪種后果更加嚴(yán)重？這樣對比說明了什么問題？沒有基數(shù)的對比是無意義的。而且，房價(jià)上漲一定是由于對新房供應(yīng)量的限制嗎？是否還有其他因素可能影響房價(jià)？例如，通貨膨脹也會(huì)導(dǎo)致房價(jià)上漲。